Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdca3…60f5 crypto 376 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (686 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+1%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%182W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day686.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$426
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (686 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 375 -13.2% -21.4% 49% 38% -13.2%
≤30d 375 -13.2% -21.4% 49% 38% -13.2%
≤90d 375 -13.2% -21.4% 49% 38% -13.2%
all 375 -13.2% -21.4% 49% 38% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover686.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 38% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 25% -21.5%
15% -35.8% 15% -29.1%
20% -42.1% 10% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses182 / 193
Open positions1
Markets (closed)375 / 376
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day686.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 35¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$23 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$12 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $69 −$53 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $66 −$28 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $83 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $44 −$37 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $64 +$19 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $64 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$14 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $62 −$7 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.16 · official $1.02 (match) · 1832 history records