Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdca2…89ab other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%23W / 1L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$18
crypto 25% +$2
tech 13% +$2
culture 2% $0
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 17 -5.7% -14.7% 94% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 -3.9% -13.1% 96% 0% -9.3%
all 24 -3.9% -13.1% 96% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -29.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.41 per $1 lost it wins $4.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses23 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage71d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $658 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $650 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $389 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $380 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $296 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4? Jun 07 $355 +$1 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? Jun 01 $120 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $151 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 01 $270 $0 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–May 2 May 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–May May 26 $150 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–Ma May 26 $150 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–May 24, May 26 $150 $0 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 25 $141 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 18 $220 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $435 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 01 $230 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April 202 May 01 $424 +$1 +0%
Will "Trevor Noah: Joy in the Trenches" be the #2 global Netflix show Apr 22 $243 +$1 +0%
Will "Big Mistakes: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Apr 22 $400 +$11 +3%
Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Apr 11 $642 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $658 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $288 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $650 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $389 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $380 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $296 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $355 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $151 22d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $270 22d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $120 22d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 22d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY No 100¢ $141 27d
Will Xiaomi have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–May 2 BUY No 100¢ $60 28d
Will DeepSeek have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–May BUY No 100¢ $150 28d
Will Anthropic have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–Ma BUY No 100¢ $150 28d
Will Z.ai have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–May 24, BUY No 100¢ $150 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $5 29d
Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 37d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $435 37d
Will Z.ai have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April 202 BUY No 100¢ $424 51d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $230 51d
Will "Trevor Noah: Joy in the Trenches" be the #2 global Netflix show BUY No 100¢ $243 60d
Will "Big Mistakes: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 97¢ $400 60d
Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $642 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records