Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdca0…550c sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$58 (-8%) realized −$7 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$136
other 13% +$22
crypto 2% −$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -30.1% -36.8% 35% 35% -19.1%
≤30d 17 -30.1% -36.8% 35% 35% -19.1%
≤90d 35 -26.9% -33.8% 23% 23% -19.7%
all 35 -26.9% -33.8% 23% 23% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 23% -19.7%
10% -40.2% 17% -27.4%
15% -45.9% 17% -34.4%
20% -51.2% 17% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage82d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $151 −$49 -32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $36 −$36 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 +$4 +20%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$24 +60%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $28 −$21 -75%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $25 −$15 -59%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$35 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $65 −$25 -38%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $0 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 28 $1 +$5 +426%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +82%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 28 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Mar 28 $10 $0 -2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Mar 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $6 $0 -3%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $0 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $51 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $10 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $92 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $36 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $26 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $22 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 43¢ $23 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $20 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $13 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $65 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 27h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $15 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $51 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $17 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 16¢ $7 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 23¢ $10 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 62¢ $28 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $25 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $18 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $48 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 83¢ $40 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.45 · official $29.45 (match) · 94 history records