Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdca0…140e other 282 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$264 (+1%) realized +$238 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%108W / 160L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$281
14 days+$254
30 days−$1,610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$930
sports 22% −$8
world 6% −$253
politics 3% −$84
crypto 2% −$67
economics 1% −$154
culture 0% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +57.0% +42.1% 53% 50% +18.4%
≤30d 81 -23.3% -30.6% 26% 22% -52.8%
≤90d 119 -26.2% -33.3% 23% 19% -57.3%
all 268 +10.9% +0.4% 40% 39% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 39% -17.2%
10% -9.2% 37% -25.1%
15% -18.0% 36% -32.3%
20% -26.1% 30% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +34% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$86 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$238
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses108 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)268 / 282
History coverage620d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+67%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 76¢ $12 $25 +$13 (+107%)
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Yes 38¢ 26¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-29%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ 40¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+102%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$22 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 +$46 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $175 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$8 -16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$35 +170%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 +$7 +45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $66 +$72 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $36 +$103 +287%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $25 +$14 +57%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $46 +$53 +114%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$23 +90%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C May 29 $150 $0 +0%
Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $68 +$5 +8%
Will Slovakia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 26 $14 $0 -3%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-18? May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-30? May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Como win on 2025-10-25? May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 May 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-25? May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-26? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? May 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-23? May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2025-10-23? May 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $12 1h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 37¢ $15 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 60¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $15 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $8 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $15 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $178 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 32¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 21¢ $15 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $14 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.11 · official $187.79 · 1359 history records