Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc9e…ba88 other 52 markets active 92d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,740 (+4%) realized +$5,740 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,698per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$17,839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$26,090
crypto 25% +$6,868
world 24% −$8,612
tech 9% −$12,545
sports 4% −$6,061
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 52 +43.0% +29.4% 54% 38% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.4% 38% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here +17.0% 21% -11.8%
15% +5.7% 17% -20.3%
20% -4.7% 13% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$3,120) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +82% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,653 vs −$1,843 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$17,839
Realized+$5,740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage62d
Avg bet$2,698
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $2,578 +$28,004 +1086%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $319 −$319 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 08 $3,800 +$600 +16%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 05 $2,479 −$2,479 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $3,033 −$440 -14%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $6,737 −$6,316 -94%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $2,695 −$2,681 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Feb 27 $579 −$579 -100%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 27 $2,179 −$2,177 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 25 $678 −$477 -70%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $9,967 −$9,867 -99%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $9,630 −$40 -0%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Feb 16 $4,728 −$4,728 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 14 $400 +$4,300 +1075%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Feb 13 $18 +$2 +11%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 13 $2,245 +$492 +22%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 12 $985 +$182 +18%
T20 World Cup: Scotland vs West Indies (Game 1) Feb 11 $11 −$11 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026? Feb 11 $2,410 −$2,260 -94%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $80 +$20 +25%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Ireland (Game 1) Feb 08 $1,003 −$1,003 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 06 $314 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin 15%+ daily candle in 2026? Feb 06 $24 +$36 +150%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Feb 05 $8,682 −$2,686 -31%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 04 $0 $0 +136%
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Feb 03 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 03 $100 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 03 $3,900 +$150 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? Feb 03 $1,237 −$271 -22%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in February? Feb 02 $1,140 +$1,860 +163%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Feb 02 $388 +$6 +2%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$82.5 in January? Feb 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in February? Feb 01 $20,631 +$326 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Feb 01 $60 +$11 +19%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in February? Jan 31 $6,813 +$2,435 +36%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Jan 31 $3,485 +$3,745 +107%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 31 $10,797 +$1,812 +17%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 31 $2,184 +$820 +38%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 27 $2,356 −$2,031 -86%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January? Jan 26 $119 −$79 -66%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 25 $2,000 +$25 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 25 $3,870 +$151 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 21? Jan 25 $1,675 −$1,675 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 25 $1,183 +$118 +10%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? Jan 25 $368 +$69 +19%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $7,125 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 24 $504 +$448 +89%
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? Jan 24 $570 +$131 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1,765 91d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $73 91d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 91d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 91d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $188 91d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $300 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $779 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $188 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $200 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $752 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $474 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $237 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $94 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $90 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $100 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 92d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $240 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,839.24 · official $17,839.24 (match) · 799 history records