Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc9d…927b crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$5 (-7%) realized +$1 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%50W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +2.1% -7.7% 78% 78% -7.7%
≤30d 64 +2.1% -7.7% 78% 78% -7.7%
≤90d 64 +2.1% -7.7% 78% 78% -7.7%
all 64 +2.1% -7.7% 78% 78% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 78% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 78% -16.5%
15% -24.6% 11% -24.6%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses50 / 14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)64 / 73
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 77¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.45 · official $3.46 (match) · 137 history records