Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DC 0xdc9b…572e other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,035 (+15%) realized +$4,047 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$729per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$4,634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 226d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$1,732
sports 19% +$1,547
world 1% +$34
politics 0% −$60
crypto 0% −$15
culture 0% −$5
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 20% 20% -22.3%
≤30d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 20% 20% -22.3%
≤90d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 20% 20% -22.3%
all 37 -13.8% -22.0% 46% 35% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 35% -10.7%
10% -29.5% 22% -19.2%
15% -36.3% 11% -27.0%
20% -42.5% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$146 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$4,634
Realized+$4,047
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage226d
Avg bet$729
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $4,646 $4,634 −$12 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $4,912 −$454 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $3,451 −$1,916 -56%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2,246 −$132 -6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 28 $41 −$17 -41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,223 +$845 +69%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 03 $15 +$1 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $56 +$16 +29%
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? Feb 27 $71 +$24 +34%
Nothing Ever Happens: February Feb 06 $17 +$4 +22%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Feb 01 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 29 $66 −$45 -69%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Jan 26 $20 −$5 -26%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 21 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 19 $40 +$2 +6%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Trump and Machado handshake last 6–10 seconds? Jan 17 $11 +$2 +21%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on Janua Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $5 +$3 +54%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $55 +$8 +15%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $10 +$1 +15%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $47 +$2 +5%
Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes? Jan 15 $15 −$1 -10%
Will "Maduro" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jan 09 $2 $0 -13%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Jan 09 $4 −$4 -100%
ParenseDeManos: Mariano Pérez vs Manuel Jove Dec 22 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 21 $13 −$10 -73%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 12 $33 −$20 -60%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 30 $100 −$68 -68%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $5,000 +$1,757 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 36m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $112 37m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4,659 38m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,099 41m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3,358 41m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4,912 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $451 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $891 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,535 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,095 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $2,114 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $2,246 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 92¢ $2,068 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,223 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 39h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 39h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $6,438 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5,106 4d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? BUY No $16 118d
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 86¢ $16 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,634.35 · official $4,634.35 (match) · 136 history records