Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdc9b…e8db other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$157 (+103%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$125
other 33% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +27.1% +15.0% 50% 50% +84.6%
≤30d 4 +27.1% +15.0% 50% 50% +84.6%
≤90d 4 +27.1% +15.0% 50% 50% +84.6%
all 4 +27.1% +15.0% 50% 50% +84.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 50% +84.6%
10% +4.0% 50% +66.9%
15% -6.1% 50% +50.8%
20% -15.3% 50% +36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$10 · ×8.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.49 per $1 lost it wins $8.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $102 +$125 +123%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $29 +$53 +185%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $227 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 82¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records