Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdc98…618b other 122 markets active 3d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$18
politics 25% −$11
sports 10% −$22
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$2
tech 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 121 -2.6% -11.9% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage112d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $483 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $247 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $261 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $265 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $701 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $250 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $474 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $479 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $460 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $490 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $257 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 3d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $40 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $263 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $263 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $206 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $206 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $268 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $268 22d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $215 23d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 23d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $192 23d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $192 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $269 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $269 24d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $267 24d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $267 25d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 365 history records