Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc95…cfe1 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$897per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$12
other 29% −$10
politics 17% −$5
economics 8% −$7
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 28 -0.2% -9.7% 68% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,198) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage232d
Avg bet$897
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? May 06 $68 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 10 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 10 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 1? Mar 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Mar 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? Feb 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 17? Jan 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 17 $3,700 −$4 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 17 $3,700 −$4 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $3,716 −$4 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 10? Jan 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $4,532 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $4,547 −$5 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? Dec 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 8? Dec 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 3? Dec 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 28? Dec 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? Nov 28 $58 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 06 $2,198 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $50 −$6 -11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $2,155 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Nov 05 $2,209 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $39 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 42d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 49d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $68 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $128 107d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $37 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $40 150d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $38 155d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $35 155d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $30 155d
Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $3,696 159d
Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $3,700 159d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 100¢ $3,696 159d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $3,700 159d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,712 159d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,716 159d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 166d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $4,527 172d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $4,532 172d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $4,542 172d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $4,547 172d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 178d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $30 180d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 187d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 199d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.83 · official $140.83 (match) · 219 history records