Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc94…a3b6 crypto 305 markets active 5d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%111W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$297
14 days−$208
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$2
crypto 37% −$130
other 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -22.9% -30.3% 21% 21% -32.8%
≤30d 305 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 36% -11.9%
≤90d 305 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 36% -11.9%
all 305 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 36% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 36% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 36% -20.3%
15% -30.8% 36% -28.0%
20% -37.6% 36% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses111 / 194
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage18d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (170 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$59 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$46 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$19 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$11 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$22 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$12 -34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$19 -76%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $27 −$5 -18%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$50 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$21 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $71 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $16 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $66 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 483 history records