Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DC 0xdc8f…d0e4 sports 787 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,475 (+98%) realized +$24,914 · open +$561
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%282W / 495L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Fees−$806est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,095now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$564
7 days+$7,575
14 days+$7,577
30 days+$7,344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$12,208
other 26% +$693
crypto 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +21.6% +10.1% 53% 51% +99.6%
≤30d 261 +31.9% +19.3% 44% 44% +43.7%
≤90d 777 +21.4% +9.8% 36% 36% +42.7%
all 777 +21.4% +9.8% 36% 36% +42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 36% +42.7%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 35% +29.1%
15% -10.3% 34% +16.6%
20% -19.1% 32% +5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$14 · ×4.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,095
Realized+$24,914
Unrealized+$561
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses282 / 495
Est. fees paid−$806
Open positions10
Markets (closed)777 / 787
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 777 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? No 34¢ 86¢ $391 $1,004 +$613 (+157%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Over 25¢ 18¢ $82 $57 −$25 (-30%)
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-05-24? No 48¢ 26¢ $49 $27 −$22 (-45%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 37¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 63¢ 16¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-74%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+34%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Over 23¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Saudi Arabia $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Over 21¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Haiti $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $111 −$8 -8%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $238 −$238 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $120 +$89 +74%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -50%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $151 −$39 -26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $206 +$384 +186%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $489 +$382 +78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $4 +$5 +122%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $182 +$123 +67%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,808 +$4,844 +268%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 14 $86 +$69 +80%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $385 +$964 +250%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $29 +$17 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $116 +$33 +28%
Arda Güler: 1+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$14 +67%
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$2 +133%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$1 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 13 $212 +$213 +100%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $4 +$2 +55%
Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $86 −$83 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $142 −$6 -4%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $62 +$70 +112%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs ZETA DIVISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $25 +$72 +285%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $22 +$23 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $162 +$116 +71%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$18 +183%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $80 −$5 -7%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $135 +$114 +85%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 12 $76 +$57 +76%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 12 $118 +$94 +80%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $86 +$289 +335%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $4 +$3 +90%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $38 +$34 +89%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Jun 11 $22 +$29 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 87¢ $255 7m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 87¢ $139 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 87¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 87¢ $248 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 87¢ $68 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 87¢ $248 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 87¢ $313 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 87¢ $220 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 87¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 88¢ $85 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 87¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 87¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 88¢ $116 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 87¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 88¢ $225 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 89¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 85¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 88¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 88¢ $109 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 88¢ $238 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 88¢ $254 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 88¢ $300 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 88¢ $85 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 89¢ $68 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 89¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 89¢ $69 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 89¢ $107 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 89¢ $87 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 89¢ $93 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 89¢ $93 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,094.62 · official $1,094.62 (match) · 3500 history records