Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdc8e…deaf
crypto · 436 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$39 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses347 / 86
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)433 / 436
History coverage138d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 3 History 433 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$36
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 74¢ 76¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 79¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Over 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) San Diego Padres 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -28%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $7 +$4 +54%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$8 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $0 $0 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6PM ET Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 01 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3AM ET May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET May 26 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10PM ET May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7AM ET May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $12 −$8 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET May 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$18
politics 13% −$2
sports 11% −$27
other 11% +$11
world 6% −$3
economics 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $9 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $6 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $6 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 64¢ $4 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 45¢ $7 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 79¢ $8 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $7 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 37¢ $5 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $8 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $10 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ $6 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 4d
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $5 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 49¢ $1 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 49¢ $2 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 49¢ $1 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 49¢ $1 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $5 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 30¢ $10 7d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -33.1% -39.4% 38% 31% -38.2%
≤30d 65 -9.0% -17.6% 82% 11% -14.8%
≤90d 258 -2.9% -12.2% 84% 4% -11.0%
all 433 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.7%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.45 · official $24.45 (match) · 1754 history records