Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc8e…e4a3 sports 10 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$202 (-26%) realized −$196 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -38.4% -44.2% 22% 22% -39.2%
≤30d 9 -38.4% -44.2% 22% 22% -39.2%
≤90d 9 -38.4% -44.2% 22% 22% -39.2%
all 9 -38.4% -44.2% 22% 22% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.2% 22% -39.2%
10% ← realistic here -49.6% 22% -45.0%
15% -54.4% 11% -50.3%
20% -58.9% 0% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$34 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$196
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $99 −$97 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $16 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $57 −$9 -16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $203 −$16 -8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 +$23 +49%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $101 −$20 -20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$1 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Top Esports 51¢ $99 30h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 51¢ $80 30h
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 31h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 30¢ $16 47h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 20¢ $5 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 19¢ $5 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Team WE 26¢ $21 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Team WE 30¢ $25 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 28¢ $20 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 27¢ $27 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $122 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 15¢ $12 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 82¢ $101 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $53 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 53¢ $20 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $20 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $63 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $22 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 22¢ $8 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $48 2d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) SELL Bilibili Gaming 42¢ $81 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 34¢ $18 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $20 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $4 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 91¢ $63 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $20 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $30 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 96¢ $98 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 33¢ $15 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 98¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.34 · official $14.34 (match) · 32 history records