Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc89…095c weather 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$773 (+2%) realized +$680 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate33%69W / 139L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$237est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$260
14 days+$370
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$260
world 28% −$191
other 13% −$41
weather 10% +$542
finance 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$15
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -8.7% -17.4% 47% 30% -1.9%
≤30d 55 -14.1% -22.3% 45% 27% -5.5%
≤90d 206 +6.2% -3.9% 33% 20% -7.6%
all 208 +6.0% -4.1% 33% 21% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 21% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 14% -16.5%
15% -21.7% 12% -24.6%
20% -29.3% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$16 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$680
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses69 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$237
Open positions1
Markets (closed)208 / 209
History coverage91d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 75¢ 100¢ $279 $372 +$93 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $351 −$87 -25%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $435 +$297 +68%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $172 −$30 -17%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $146 +$21 +15%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$71 +35%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $217 −$20 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $52 +$11 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $225 −$24 -11%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $147 +$71 +49%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $49 +$5 +11%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $197 +$86 +43%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $284 −$23 -8%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $354 +$1 +0%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $187 −$15 -8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $365 +$137 +38%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $173 −$54 -31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $196 +$5 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $393 −$160 -41%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $110 +$39 +35%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $403 +$35 +9%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $104 +$20 +19%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $200 +$112 +56%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$2 +7%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $6 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $23 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 07 $6 −$6 -96%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$15 -50%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $201 −$29 -14%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $265 −$17 -6%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $189 −$8 -4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $273 −$6 -2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $397 +$23 +6%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $521 +$10 +2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $210 −$28 -14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $569 +$7 +1%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $689 −$34 -5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $292 +$81 +28%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $496 −$18 -4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $107 +$24 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $40 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 11¢ $50 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $41 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 12¢ $24 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 14¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 14¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 14¢ $16 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 14¢ $9 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 14¢ $0 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $40 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 73¢ $40 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $48 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $42 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $43 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $13 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $12 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $5 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $1 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $2 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $4 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $2 45h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $14 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.81 · official $371.81 (match) · 2052 history records