Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:05:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdc89…0daa politics 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$6
other 17% −$3
world 2% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -11.4% -19.8% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 16 -8.8% -17.5% 12% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 6% -9.6%
10% -25.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage133d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -16%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $297 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 03 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $1,955 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $1,446 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,457 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6m
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 35m
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 2h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 3h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 6h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 6h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 7h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 8h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 9h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 10h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 14h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 20h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 20h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 25h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 26h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 31h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 31h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $268 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 69d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $2 80d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $297 112d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $748 112d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $862 112d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $314 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.85 · official $410.85 (match) · 177 history records