Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdc88…8d2b sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$190 (+40%) realized +$205 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$203
14 days+$185
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$79
other 24% +$121
world 6% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +81.5% +64.2% 75% 75% +57.7%
≤30d 16 +57.8% +42.8% 69% 69% +34.7%
≤90d 16 +57.8% +42.8% 69% 69% +34.7%
all 16 +57.8% +42.8% 69% 69% +34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.8% 69% +34.7%
10% +29.1% 69% +21.8%
15% +16.7% 69% +10.0%
20% +5.2% 62% -0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +78% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage8d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $41 $41 +$1 (+2%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 22¢ $25 $11 −$15 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $26 +$16 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$25 +466%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $32 +$59 +188%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $32 +$42 +134%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $28 +$47 +165%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 +$12 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 +$23 +92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $41 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $26 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 76¢ $30 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $32 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $26 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $25 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $32 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $37 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $26 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $36 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $28 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 92¢ $49 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.78 · official $81.79 (match) · 30 history records