Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdc88…97a9 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$165 (+8%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 175d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$824
other 34% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -43.1% -48.5% 25% 25% -63.5%
≤30d 12 -43.1% -48.5% 25% 25% -63.5%
≤90d 12 -43.1% -48.5% 25% 25% -63.5%
all 13 -38.0% -43.9% 31% 31% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 31% -37.8%
10% -49.3% 31% -43.7%
15% -54.2% 23% -49.2%
20% -58.7% 23% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$127 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage175d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $236 −$236 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $221 −$211 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $193 +$264 +136%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $9 +$8 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $111 −$111 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $78 −$75 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$10 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $314 −$314 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $34 +$43 +124%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 07 $731 +$165 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $221 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $457 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $193 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $17 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $86 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $96 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $34 1h
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? SELL No 18¢ $896 173d
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY No 19¢ $5 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records