Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdc83…bcd2
other · 77 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$4,905 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,008 · open −$201
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27,080
Realized+$5,008
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses30 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)53 / 77
History coverage104d
Avg bet$1,079
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 24 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$859
7 days+$1,421
14 days+$3,162
30 days+$3,130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $7,304 $7,522 +$219 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 85¢ $5,385 $5,285 −$101 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $4,304 $4,648 +$344 (+8%)
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 84¢ 80¢ $1,514 $1,451 −$63 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 36¢ 46¢ $1,101 $1,442 +$341 (+31%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,391 $1,429 +$38 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 60¢ 45¢ $1,125 $845 −$279 (-25%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $838 $836 −$2 (-0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $758 $799 +$41 (+5%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 55¢ 30¢ $1,079 $574 −$506 (-47%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $683 $540 −$143 (-21%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $420 $452 +$32 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 67¢ 94¢ $260 $364 +$105 (+40%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $320 $270 −$50 (-16%)
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? No 77¢ 86¢ $231 $256 +$26 (+11%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $167 $133 −$34 (-20%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $228 $104 −$124 (-54%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 77¢ $59 $48 −$11 (-18%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+11%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 64¢ 54¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $19 $3 −$16 (-82%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-63%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$16 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,089 −$614 -56%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $728 −$717 -98%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 14 $360 −$319 -88%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $457 −$242 -53%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 13 $14 +$8 +56%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $718 +$140 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $205 +$43 +21%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $763 +$842 +110%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $617 +$7 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $482 +$457 +95%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,276 +$637 +50%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $143 −$77 -54%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $879 +$281 +32%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $42 +$435 +1032%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $750 +$750 +100%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $75 +$26 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $212 −$59 -28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11,411 −$1,092 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $8,172 +$561 +7%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? Jun 01 $66 +$44 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,240 +$2,133 +34%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $97 −$69 -72%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,054 +$222 +21%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 5AM ET May 29 $301 −$46 -15%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,640 +$112 +7%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 28 $40 +$19 +49%
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 23, 2026? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 26 $264 −$114 -43%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $168 −$92 -55%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $255 $0 +0%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $786 +$507 +64%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $880 +$341 +39%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $2,393 +$870 +36%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 28 $126 −$112 -89%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $322 +$88 +27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $1,529 −$353 -23%
Will March be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 16 $178 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Apr 16 $2,005 −$838 -42%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 14 $530 +$227 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $338 −$216 -64%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April? Apr 07 $180 −$25 -14%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $416 +$150 +36%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 01 $758 +$326 +43%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $941 +$530 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% +$4,216
crypto 19% −$770
other 15% +$2,655
tech 5% +$203
finance 4% −$1,191
politics 0% −$274
economics 0% −$34
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,069 18m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $1 20m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $53 20m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $79 20m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $3 20m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $18 20m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $6 20m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $27 20m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $470 22m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 22m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $190 22m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $129 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $26 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 26¢ $132 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 27¢ $204 25m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 60¢ $571 41m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 60¢ $30 41m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 61¢ $488 45m
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL No 0¢ $2 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 63¢ $146 53m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 63¢ $319 53m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 59m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,126 59m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $320 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $651 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,602 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? SELL No 1¢ $17 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $175 5h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 5h
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL No 4¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +47.5% +33.4% 58% 53% +5.0%
≤30d 33 +25.4% +13.5% 58% 45% -2.1%
≤90d 50 +15.9% +4.9% 56% 46% -1.5%
all 53 +16.2% +5.1% 57% 45% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 45% -0.7%
10% -5.0% 38% -10.2%
15% -14.1% 30% -18.9%
20% -22.6% 17% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,079.55 · official $27,078.93 (match) · 707 history records