Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc81…242f crypto 1299 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$929 (+4%) realized +$938 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%514W / 784L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day184.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$78
14 days−$200
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 494 -10.5% -19.1% 38% 36% -11.1%
≤30d 1298 -10.0% -18.6% 40% 37% -10.6%
≤90d 1298 -10.0% -18.6% 40% 37% -10.6%
all 1298 -10.0% -18.6% 40% 37% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover184.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 37% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 32% -19.1%
15% -33.5% 30% -26.9%
20% -40.0% 28% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$938
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses514 / 784
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1298 / 1299
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day184.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 57¢ 72¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 65¢ 28¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$13 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$9 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$12 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$12 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$9 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$12 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$9 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$13 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$13 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $16 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $16 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $17 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 3500 history records