Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc80…991b crypto 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$17 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%162W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$21
crypto 17% −$11
tech 13% −$1
sports 6% +$8
politics 5% −$1
world 4% +$4
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 17 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 80 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.1%
all 179 -6.0% -15.0% 91% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -10.0%
10% -23.1% 4% -18.6%
15% -30.5% 3% -26.5%
20% -37.4% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses162 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)179 / 182
History coverage581d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 100¢ 99¢ $245 $243 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $316 +$2 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $257 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $4 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 28 $241 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $242 +$3 +1%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $2 $0 +4%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 21 $233 +$11 +5%
Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $68 $0 +1%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 06 $91 +$5 +5%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $8 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 02 $75 +$4 +5%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $67 +$4 +5%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in March? Apr 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $245 1h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 100¢ $3 28h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 99¢ $316 29h
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $257 27d
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $241 30d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 99¢ $5 30d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $242 31d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 36d
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $233 37d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $2 39d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 40d
Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 42d
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $69 43d
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $68 47d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $4 47d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $1 48d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 49d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $3 49d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 51d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 53d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $4 54d
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $82 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 54d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 54d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $5 54d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.08 · official $248.08 (match) · 373 history records