Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc80…9f10 politics 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate17%9W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$5
sports 33% −$3
other 8% +$1
world 7% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -40.1% -45.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 5 -40.1% -45.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 53 -8.6% -17.3% 17% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -25.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -32.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -39.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses9 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage232d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $141 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $74 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $76 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $75 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $73 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 23 $76 $0 -1%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $1 $0 -3%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $71 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $2 $0 -15%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 28 $76 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $75 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $76 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $151 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 30 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 29 $229 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $80 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $4 $0 -9%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 19 $1 $0 -33%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $157 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $72 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $1 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 20d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $76 22d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $75 100d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $75 102d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 109d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $75 115d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $75 119d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 121d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 123d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 123d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $71 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 128d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 128d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 128d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 130d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 130d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 130d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 132d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $71 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.90 · official $71.90 (match) · 211 history records