Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DC 0xdc7d…8895 sports 289 markets active 11h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,121 (+17%) realized +$2,135 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%171W / 115L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$565
14 days+$1,281
30 days+$1,602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,999
other 2% −$24
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +7.3% -2.9% 57% 55% +8.2%
≤30d 255 +13.7% +2.9% 60% 60% +3.8%
≤90d 286 +13.4% +2.6% 60% 59% +5.4%
all 286 +13.4% +2.6% 60% 59% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 59% +5.4%
10% -7.2% 58% -4.7%
15% -16.2% 53% -13.9%
20% -24.4% 44% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$27 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$2,135
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses171 / 115
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions3
Markets (closed)286 / 289
History coverage39d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 49¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 58¢ 55¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$27 +178%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $45 −$45 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$42 +206%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $30 +$30 +97%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $35 +$21 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$24 +158%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $56 +$25 +46%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $40 +$20 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$25 +97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$39 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$13 +83%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $302 +$78 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 +$31 +61%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +61%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $202 +$88 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$13 +65%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $543 +$144 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$18 +90%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$11 +206%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $15 +$15 +97%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$13 +66%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$19 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$53 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 67¢ $45 10h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $15 12h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 4¢ $5 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 25h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 58¢ $25 25h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 87¢ $104 25h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 83¢ $101 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 32¢ $20 29h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 30h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY RisingRage 52¢ $15 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $15 31h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY RisingRage 35¢ $20 31h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 68¢ $56 32h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $25 40h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 62¢ $35 45h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 45h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $22 45h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 2d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 27¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $30 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $15 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $20 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $30 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 53¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.48 · official $91.49 (match) · 575 history records