Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc7d…b552 politics 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-7%) realized −$69 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%33W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$6
politics 29% −$13
other 27% −$4
crypto 6% −$43
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 14% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 80 -5.7% -14.7% 29% 1% -12.6%
all 113 -6.5% -15.4% 29% 4% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 4% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 2% -26.3%
15% -30.9% 2% -33.4%
20% -37.6% 1% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses33 / 80
Open positions21
Markets (closed)113 / 134
History coverage109d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 95¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
OPEC dissolves in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 84¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $3 $0 -14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? May 22 $4 $0 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $16 −$1 -5%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? May 18 $15 $0 -0%
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? May 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? May 15 $3 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 14 $7 $0 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? May 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? May 13 $5 $0 -5%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? May 13 $2 $0 -3%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? May 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 13 $10 $0 -3%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $4 $0 -5%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? May 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 09 $1 $0 -12%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? May 09 $27 $0 -1%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 09 $4 $0 +3%
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? May 01 $1 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Apr 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? Apr 23 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Apr 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Apr 15 $13 $0 -2%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $25 −$5 -19%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second- Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 12 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of th Apr 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Esther Soria Gonzales win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial elect Apr 12 $14 $0 -1%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 -7%
Will Jhon Ariel Rioja win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election? Apr 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alejandro Mostajo Rueda win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial ele Apr 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 10 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $1 $0 -17%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Apr 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 07 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4m
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 3h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $1 27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $0 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $0 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 32h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 32h
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $0 43h
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential elec SELL No 96¢ $0 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 45h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 46h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 46h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential elec SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $0 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $0 2d
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $0 2d
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $0 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $0 3d
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.03 · official $27.26 · 2237 history records