Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc7c…41e4 other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$10
politics 21% −$1
sports 6% −$15
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -3.8% -13.0% 8% 5% -9.9%
all 99 -3.8% -13.0% 8% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.9%
10% -21.3% 5% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage87d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $138 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $122 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $63 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $191 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 19h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 22h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 45h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 47h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $14 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.88 · official $34.88 (match) · 277 history records