Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdc79…1d1f crypto 851 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,590 (+3%) realized +$1,590 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate77%652W / 199L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$155
14 days−$160
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -16.7% -24.6% 61% 42% -15.3%
≤30d 179 -8.6% -17.3% 61% 45% -15.1%
≤90d 467 -5.4% -14.4% 67% 46% -14.9%
all 851 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 39% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 39% -7.7%
10% -19.8% 18% -16.5%
15% -27.5% 10% -24.6%
20% -34.6% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,590
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses652 / 199
Open positions0
Markets (closed)851 / 851
History coverage162d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 851 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $71 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $94 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $83 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $79 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $48 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $49 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $12 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $35 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2744 history records