Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdc79…23d8 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +153% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +95% what you keep after slip
Net edge+95%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$467
other 14% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+129.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +153.3% +129.1% 67% 58% +87.1%
≤30d 12 +153.3% +129.1% 67% 58% +87.1%
≤90d 12 +153.3% +129.1% 67% 58% +87.1%
all 12 +153.3% +129.1% 67% 58% +87.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +129.1% 58% +87.1%
10% ← realistic here +107.2% 42% +69.2%
15% +87.2% 25% +52.9%
20% +68.8% 17% +37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +107% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +153% · $-wt +107% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +311% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$27 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.53 per $1 lost it wins $5.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 40¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$515 +1931%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$8 -15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 +$11 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $149 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $542 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $29 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 31m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $30 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $30 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.46 · official $47.57 · 38 history records