Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DC 0xdc75…a292 other 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$612 (-1%) realized −$746 · open +$134
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%72W / 85L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$668per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3,456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$493
14 days+$424
30 days+$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$1,550
crypto 24% +$842
economics 15% −$405
politics 14% +$903
world 6% +$217
finance 2% −$160
tech 2% −$570
sports 2% +$499
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +78.6% +61.6% 50% 50% +48.8%
≤30d 17 +29.6% +17.3% 47% 41% +10.1%
≤90d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 36% -3.5%
all 157 +17.6% +6.4% 46% 31% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 31% -9.8%
10% -3.8% 28% -18.4%
15% -13.1% 27% -26.3%
20% -21.6% 22% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$677) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$139 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$3,456
Realized−$746
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses72 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions17
Markets (closed)157 / 176
History coverage254d
Avg bet$668
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 44¢ 55¢ $567 $706 +$139 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 58¢ $300 $403 +$103 (+34%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 70¢ 78¢ $280 $312 +$32 (+11%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 63¢ 62¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 11¢ $433 $248 −$185 (-43%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $200 $179 −$21 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $175 $174 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $50 $116 +$66 (+132%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $97 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 17¢ 60¢ $20 $71 +$51 (+253%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 56¢ 14¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $153 +$413 +269%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $308 −$47 -15%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $505 −$22 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $77 +$39 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $159 +$513 +323%
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 01 $540 +$33 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $105 +$250 +238%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $510 −$436 -85%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $405 +$289 +71%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $305 −$300 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? May 26 $53 −$50 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Apr 02 $250 −$250 -100%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Apr 02 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $500 +$95 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $2,116 +$80 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 28 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $100 +$138 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 21 $34 +$26 +75%
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? Mar 21 $62 +$38 +61%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 21 $121 +$79 +65%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 21 $1,680 −$200 -12%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 06 $40 +$515 +1286%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 04 $30 +$1 +5%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $1,130 −$49 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $80 −$39 -49%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $384 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $442 −$168 -38%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Mar 02 $161 −$4 -3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $112 +$380 +339%
Khamenei seen in public by March 3? Mar 01 $545 +$55 +10%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 01 $171 −$171 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Feb 28 $489 −$70 -14%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $836 −$246 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 28 $46 −$15 -32%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $200 +$387 +193%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026? Feb 26 $65 +$35 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 18¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $97 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 12h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $79 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 21¢ $102 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 27¢ $153 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $50 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $132 3d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $102 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $69 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $239 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $103 15d
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $116 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 16d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,456.39 · official $3,506.44 · 908 history records