trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 80¢ | 81¢ | $163,735 | $165,977 | +$2,242 (+1%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | $43,000 | $45,250 | +$2,250 (+5%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | $37,682 | $38,695 | +$1,013 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $69,124 | +$130,875 | +189% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 06 | $28,324 | −$17,125 | -60% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $117,887 | +$194,816 | +165% |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Oct 21 | $113,450 | +$14,224 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +64.4% | +48.8% | 50% | 50% | +96.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +98.0% | +79.2% | 67% | 67% | +120.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +98.0% | +79.2% | 67% | 67% | +120.1% |
| all | 4 | +76.7% | +59.8% | 75% | 75% | +79.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +59.8% | 75% | +79.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +44.5% | 50% | +62.1% |
| 15% | +30.6% | 50% | +46.5% |
| 20% | +17.8% | 50% | +32.1% |