Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc70…d387 other 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$43
sports 27% −$28
culture 7% −$8
politics 7% −$9
economics 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage138d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $354 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $554 −$2 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $328 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $479 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $137 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $770 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $355 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $428 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $318 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $751 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 23m
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 6h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 8h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 9h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 10h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 21h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 22h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 24h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 28h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 31h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 32h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 34h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 36h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 36h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 37h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 39h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 40h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 41h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 46h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 47h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1456 history records