Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc6f…bece other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%5W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$13
other 14% −$2
sports 2% −$7
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 5% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 35 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 3% -9.9%
all 46 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses5 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage605d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $85 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $143 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 10 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $56 −$3 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $12 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $280 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,587 −$6 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,339 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $11 18h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $11 19h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $10 39h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $10 40h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 63¢ $12 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.04 · official $52.04 (match) · 260 history records