Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdc6e…d878 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-4%) realized −$67 · open −$54
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$103
14 days−$82
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$124
sports 32% −$10
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 86% 29% -2.8%
≤30d 27 -12.3% -20.6% 59% 30% -12.4%
≤90d 27 -12.3% -20.6% 59% 30% -12.4%
all 27 -12.3% -20.6% 59% 30% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 30% -12.4%
10% -28.2% 15% -20.8%
15% -35.2% 7% -28.5%
20% -41.5% 4% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage17d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Toulouse win? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $326 $297 −$29 (-9%)
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 11¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov Jun 26 $111 −$10 -9%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $317 +$9 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $265 +$53 +20%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $254 +$10 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $232 +$22 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$13 +73%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $206 −$5 -2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $101 −$24 -24%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $9 +$1 +17%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $167 −$129 -77%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $108 +$5 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 14 $47 −$1 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $53 +$12 +24%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $98 −$14 -14%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $251 −$41 -16%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $64 −$6 -10%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $142 +$28 +20%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $52 +$8 +14%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $38 +$2 +5%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $27 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Toulouse win? BUY Yes 88¢ $327 1h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov BUY Petr Nesterov 37¢ $10 1h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov SELL Sandro Kopp 94¢ $1 1h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov SELL Sandro Kopp 88¢ $104 1h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov BUY Sandro Kopp 84¢ $100 3h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $306 4h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 98¢ $300 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $317 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $265 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $254 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $232 5d
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $201 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $15 9d
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 23¢ $77 10d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 55¢ $76 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 10d
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 56¢ $15 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 11d
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 85¢ $9 11d
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 74¢ $7 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $39 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $167 11d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 97¢ $113 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 11d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 91¢ $45 12d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $47 12d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $108 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.69 · official $446.69 (match) · 64 history records