Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdc6c…425c sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$502 (+5%) realized +$1,982 · open −$1,480
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$687per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$1,097
other 24% +$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 62% -2.9%
≤30d 13 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 62% -2.9%
≤90d 13 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 62% -2.9%
all 13 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 62% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 62% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 62% -12.2%
15% -28.6% 31% -20.7%
20% -35.6% 15% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$452 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,982
Unrealized−$1,480
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$687
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $1,031 $1 −$1,030 (-100%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $307 −$221 -72%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 28 $1,013 +$86 +8%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $1,019 +$412 +40%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,067 +$269 +25%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $1,120 −$1,098 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $612 +$325 +53%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $776 +$174 +22%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $510 −$477 -94%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $311 +$86 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $791 +$318 +40%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $305 +$95 +31%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $941 +$683 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $86 23m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $459 24m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $307 41m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $102 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $646 1h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,099 1h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,013 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $307 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1,019 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $152 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $507 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $408 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $303 22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $817 22h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 86¢ $166 23h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $610 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 24h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $612 24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 4¢ $33 24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $510 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? SELL Yes 11¢ $397 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? BUY Yes 8¢ $311 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $791 32h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $305 46h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,625 46h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $941 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.30 · official $1.30 (match) · 32 history records