Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdc69…2e56 other 14 markets active 19h ago coverage 376d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$83 (+18%) realized +$73 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$258
14 days+$251
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$193
economics 13% −$59
sports 11% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +258.1% +224.0% 83% 83% +135.5%
≤30d 7 +207.0% +177.7% 71% 71% +125.7%
≤90d 8 +168.6% +143.0% 62% 62% +57.8%
all 12 +79.1% +62.0% 42% 42% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.0% 42% +8.8%
10% +46.5% 42% -1.6%
15% +32.4% 42% -11.1%
20% +19.4% 42% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +258% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$27 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage376d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $98 $108 +$11 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$41 +134%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $81 +$96 +118%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$50 +982%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$30 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$45 +297%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $73 −$72 -98%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.32 · official $122.32 (match) · 49 history records