Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc68…fc95 crypto 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-4%) realized −$47 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%157W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$2
14 days+$4
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$64
other 2% −$5
sports 1% +$5
world 1% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.2% -14.2% 48% 42% -9.9%
≤30d 135 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 42% -10.9%
≤90d 333 -7.4% -16.3% 47% 41% -15.2%
all 333 -7.4% -16.3% 47% 41% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 41% -15.2%
10% -24.3% 35% -23.3%
15% -31.6% 28% -30.7%
20% -38.3% 22% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses157 / 176
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)333 / 334
History coverage79d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 46¢ 98¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+114%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $5 +$5 +86%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$3 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 24h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $5 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $5.87 (match) · 759 history records