Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc68…e062 other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 95L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$21
politics 21% −$3
economics 8% −$1
sports 5% +$5
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 +3.7% -6.2% 14% 10% -9.4%
all 110 +3.7% -6.2% 14% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 10% -9.4%
10% -15.1% 10% -18.0%
15% -23.3% 8% -26.0%
20% -30.9% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 95
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage90d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $228 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $212 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $320 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $343 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 10 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $115 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $330 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $112 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $106 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $116 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $109 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $304 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $226 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 24 $109 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $221 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $338 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 2d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 14d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $18 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $16 23d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 23d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $49 25d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $113 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $113 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 30d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $112 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.32 · official $69.32 (match) · 312 history records