Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc66…6167 crypto 693 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$339 (-5%) realized −$339 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%238W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days+$200
14 days+$197
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 +11.5% +0.9% 37% 37% -4.2%
≤30d 545 -4.4% -13.5% 34% 34% -13.6%
≤90d 693 -3.8% -12.9% 34% 34% -13.1%
all 693 -3.8% -12.9% 34% 34% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 34% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 34% -21.5%
15% -28.9% 33% -29.0%
20% -35.9% 30% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$339
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses238 / 455
Open positions0
Markets (closed)693 / 693
History coverage37d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 693 Trades
no open positions (441 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $17 +$83 +490%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $75 +$25 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$73 +270%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $34 −$32 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $24 +$76 +324%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $43 +$57 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$34 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $37 +$63 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $75 +$25 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$31 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $44 −$35 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$50 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $38 +$62 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$19 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $44 −$42 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$68 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $45 −$43 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$49 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$45 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$29 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $45 +$55 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $42 +$58 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $68 +$32 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $76 +$24 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $29 +$71 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$81 +417%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $39 −$38 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $49 −$47 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $71 +$29 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $17 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $75 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $34 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $27 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $24 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $43 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 997 history records