Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc64…e16d crypto 682 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$613 (+1%) realized +$613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate89%604W / 78L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$30
14 days−$190
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$288
weather 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.9% +10.3% 100% 60% +6.8%
≤30d 117 -0.5% -10.0% 84% 15% -11.0%
≤90d 426 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 9% -9.7%
all 682 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 12% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$51 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses604 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)682 / 682
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$170
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 682 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $202 −$40 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$53 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $293 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $107 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $213 −$132 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $101 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $291 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $100 −$43 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $205 +$88 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $303 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $190 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $607 −$160 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $121 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $294 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $190 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $120 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 05 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 05 $194 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 04 $121 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 04 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $96 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 04 $93 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 04 $120 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $100 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $62 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $49 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $75 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $114 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $192 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $105 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $77 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records