Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

DC 0xdc5e…32b3 crypto 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$282 (-91%) realized −$282 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip

Net edge-77%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$104per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-76.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-74.0%	-76.4%	0%	0%	-95.3%
≤30d	3	-74.0%	-76.4%	0%	0%	-95.3%
≤90d	3	-74.0%	-76.4%	0%	0%	-95.3%
all	3	-74.0%	-76.4%	0%	0%	-95.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-76.4%	0%	-95.3%
10%	-78.7%	0%	-95.8%
15%	-80.8%	0%	-96.2%
20%	-82.6%	0%	-96.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -95% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -74% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$94 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$282

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$104

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 15	$159	−$145	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 15	$150	−$136	-91%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	SELL Up	18¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$95	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$58	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	SELL Down	1¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$44	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$106	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records