Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc5d…b05a crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day48.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$17
other 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 49% -8.4%
≤30d 39 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 49% -8.4%
≤90d 39 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 49% -8.4%
all 39 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 49% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 49% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 46% -17.1%
15% -27.1% 36% -25.1%
20% -34.2% 26% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day48.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 82¢ 100¢ $165 $199 +$34 (+21%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $194 +$6 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$18 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$20 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$13 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $161 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $425 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$35 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$12 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$39 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$13 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $594 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$18 -45%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $71 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $14 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $16 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $106 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.50 · official $172.50 · 102 history records