Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdc5b…f102 sports 1388 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,628 (-7%) realized −$17,481 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate66%902W / 464L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$1,549est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$6,882
other 9% +$823
world 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -0.2% -9.7% 68% 61% -13.1%
≤30d 578 -10.5% -19.0% 60% 56% -9.6%
≤90d 1366 +0.6% -9.0% 66% 61% -11.6%
all 1366 +0.6% -9.0% 66% 61% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 61% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 51% -20.1%
15% -25.6% 41% -27.8%
20% -32.9% 31% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$116 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$3,313
Realized−$17,481
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses902 / 464
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,549
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1366 / 1388
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$186
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 91¢ $1,088 $1,061 −$27 (-3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $608 $509 −$99 (-16%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $208 $260 +$52 (+25%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 83¢ 82¢ $218 $217 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $208 $163 −$45 (-21%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $128 $150 +$22 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $128 $144 +$16 (+13%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $128 $105 −$23 (-18%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $128 $104 −$24 (-19%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 63¢ 62¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ 60¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 82¢ 97¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+19%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ 40¢ $58 $45 −$13 (-23%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ 62¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 55¢ 55¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ 54¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 59¢ 53¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-11%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 49¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-20%)
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? No 39¢ 62¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $59 +$38 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $28 +$18 +65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $389 +$47 +12%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $69 +$48 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $69 +$50 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $28 +$17 +60%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $209 +$48 +23%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $228 +$14 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$14 +48%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $68 +$17 +24%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $28 +$17 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $69 +$33 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $119 +$22 +18%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $38 +$28 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $69 +$36 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $291 −$288 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $589 −$588 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,262 +$648 +20%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,883 +$411 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$26 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $28 +$28 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $28 +$8 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $28 +$22 +76%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $28 +$23 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $28 +$21 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 +$18 +62%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $28 +$34 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 +$24 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $270 +$64 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $59 +$29 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $69 +$23 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$25 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $482 −$193 -40%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $190 +$87 +46%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$18 +65%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $28 49m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $28 49m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $69 49m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $28 50m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $69 50m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $59 50m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 82¢ $38 51m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $118 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $69 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $219 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1,090 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $209 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 83¢ $68 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 60¢ $28 24h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $28 24h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $28 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $69 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $69 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $28 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $389 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $228 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $209 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $68 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $119 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $131 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $131 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,313.01 · official $3,313.01 (match) · 3500 history records