trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $100 | $102 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Germany | 49¢ | 48¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $25 | $24 | −$1 (-5%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $25 | $23 | −$2 (-9%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $25 | $21 | −$4 (-17%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $19 | $19 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $244 | $0 | −$244 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | 76ers | 52¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 57¢ | 0¢ | $102 | $0 | −$102 (-100%) |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5 | Over | 65¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Spread: Lakers (-4.5) | Lakers | 48¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Thunder | 41¢ | 0¢ | $199 | $0 | −$199 (-100%) |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | Khamzat Chimaev | 83¢ | 0¢ | $200 | $0 | −$200 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 47¢ | 0¢ | $64 | $0 | −$64 (-100%) |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Nuggets | 68¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) | Pistons | 51¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Celtics | 71¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Pistons | 64¢ | 0¢ | $135 | $0 | −$135 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 | Over | 49¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? | Yes | 67¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 62¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $71 | $0 | −$71 (-100%) |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $97 | $0 | −$97 (-100%) |
| Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $101 | +$57 | +57% |
| Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? | Jun 14 | $50 | +$218 | +436% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $102 | −$18 | -18% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $203 | +$214 | +105% |
| Spread: Canada (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $202 | +$69 | +34% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $202 | +$25 | +12% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$104 | +104% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 | Jun 12 | $203 | −$34 | -17% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $202 | +$84 | +42% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $203 | −$91 | -45% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $203 | −$200 | -99% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 06 | $100 | +$116 | +116% |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | Jun 06 | $101 | +$95 | +93% |
| Spread: Spurs (-7.5) | Jun 06 | $101 | +$58 | +57% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $101 | −$50 | -49% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 | Jun 04 | $101 | +$35 | +34% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $102 | +$131 | +129% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $100 | −$97 | -97% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 28 | $205 | −$199 | -97% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 25 | $65 | −$64 | -98% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 25 | $152 | −$39 | -26% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 23 | $105 | −$102 | -98% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 23 | $102 | +$109 | +107% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 22 | $101 | +$58 | +57% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 21 | $101 | +$42 | +42% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 16 | $136 | −$135 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 16 | $20 | +$10 | +50% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 13 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 12 | $95 | +$31 | +32% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) | May 12 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 10 | $197 | −$193 | -98% |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5 | May 10 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) | May 10 | $50 | +$69 | +137% |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | May 10 | $102 | +$30 | +29% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 09 | $101 | +$60 | +60% |
| Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? | May 09 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 09 | $202 | +$97 | +48% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 08 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 08 | $201 | +$24 | +12% |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | May 08 | $201 | −$200 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 07 | $550 | +$97 | +18% |
| Spread: Spurs (-9.5) | May 07 | $101 | −$83 | -82% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | May 07 | $202 | +$5 | +2% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $203 | +$9 | +4% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 06 | $381 | +$55 | +14% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? | May 05 | $75 | −$71 | -95% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | May 05 | $101 | +$40 | +40% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | May 04 | $62 | +$20 | +32% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | +31.6% | +19.1% | 54% | 54% | +3.6% |
| ≤30d | 29 | +18.0% | +6.7% | 55% | 55% | -3.4% |
| ≤90d | 121 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 65% | 52% | -8.7% |
| all | 365 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 65% | 50% | -7.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.3% | 50% | -7.9% |
| 10% | -19.8% | 36% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 28% | -24.8% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 18% | -32.1% |