Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc57…2faa crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$323 (-32%) realized −$323 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate76%48W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$94
sports 34% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +1.3% -8.4% 81% 36% -8.4%
≤30d 62 -2.7% -12.0% 77% 35% -27.5%
≤90d 63 -4.2% -13.4% 76% 35% -40.3%
all 63 -4.2% -13.4% 76% 35% -40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 35% -40.3%
10% -21.6% 8% -46.0%
15% -29.2% 3% -51.2%
20% -36.2% 2% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$26 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses48 / 15
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage54d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records