Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdc56…7c65 politics 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% −$5
other 17% −$3
sports 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage82d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $195 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $117 −$2 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $131 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $191 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $203 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $67 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $60 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $60 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $60 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $61 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $61 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $61 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $61 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 6d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $61 6d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $61 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 16d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 16d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $62 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $62 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $62 24d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $62 24d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $63 26d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $63 26d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $63 27d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $63 27d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $64 29d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 29d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 31d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $64 31d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $65 31d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $65 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.28 · official $60.28 (match) · 190 history records