Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc56…e898 crypto 1083 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,484 (+0%) realized +$2,482 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1053W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$968per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$14,892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$85
14 days+$196
30 days+$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1,509
other 2% −$183
world 2% +$715
politics 0% +$17
sports 0% −$36
tech 0% +$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 377 +7.4% -2.8% 97% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 917 +3.0% -6.8% 98% 1% -9.4%
all 1070 +2.6% -7.2% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 1% -9.3%
10% -16.1% 1% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,498) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.55 per $1 lost it wins $6.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$14,892
Realized+$2,482
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1053 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1070 / 1083
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$968
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1070 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,997 $2,996 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,997 $2,994 −$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,975 $2,976 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,941 $1,942 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $996 $1,000 +$4 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $998 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $974 $975 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $619 $619 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $175 $175 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 22? Jun 22 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on June 22? Jun 22 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 22? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,918 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 22? Jun 22 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 22? Jun 22 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 22? Jun 22 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $500 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? Jun 22 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 June 15-21? Jun 22 $2,697 +$3 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $3,658 +$4 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 June 15-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 21? Jun 21 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 20? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $319 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $403 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 20? Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 20? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 20? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 20? Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 20? Jun 20 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 19? Jun 19 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 19? Jun 19 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 19? Jun 19 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $812 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,386 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $148 52m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $524 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $83 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $977 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $619 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $974 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $475 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $794 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $130 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $175 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $474 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $500 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,916 8h
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,892.11 · official $14,890.76 (match) · 3500 history records