Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:31:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

DC 0xdc52…5627 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$888 (+251%) realized −$60 · open +$948

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip

Net edge-59%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$89per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$1,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-59.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-9.8%	-18.4%	0%	0%	-18.4%
≤30d	1	-9.8%	-18.4%	0%	0%	-18.4%
≤90d	1	-9.8%	-18.4%	0%	0%	-18.4%
all	2	-54.9%	-59.2%	0%	0%	-45.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-59.2%	0%	-45.2%
10%	-63.1%	0%	-50.4%
15%	-66.7%	0%	-55.2%
20%	-69.9%	0%	-59.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -55% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$29 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage

Net worth$1,148

Realized−$60

Unrealized+$948

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage105d

Avg bet$89

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	52¢	$100	$1,043	+$943 (+943%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	27¢	28¢	$100	$106	+$6 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 28	$100	−$10	-10%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 15	$49	−$49	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	45m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	18¢	$91	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$100	24h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	14d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	BUY Yes	10¢	$49	104d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,148.06 · official $1,148.10 (match) · 5 history records