Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc4f…ae07 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+4%) realized −$161 · open +$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$171
other 13% −$2
sports 12% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 35% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 35% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 35% -9.5%
all 17 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 35% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 35% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 24% -18.1%
15% -32.5% 12% -26.0%
20% -39.1% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$173
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 2¢ 50¢ $5 $124 +$119 (+2374%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $1 $56 +$54 (+4848%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$42 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$6 +18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +23%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -90%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.29 · official $180.29 (match) · 62 history records