Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdc47…a1ea crypto 53 markets active 2d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,070 (+1%) realized +$1,052 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%51W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$4,014per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$981
14 days+$994
30 days+$994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$112
world 49% +$884
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 52 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,887) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$127 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.7 per $1 lost it wins $8.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$1,052
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses51 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage134d
Avg bet$4,014
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $523 $541 +$18 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $4,518 +$126 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $91,907 +$855 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $393 +$13 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 19? May 19 $392 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 16? May 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 14? May 14 $310 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 13? May 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6? May 06 $390 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 2? May 04 $124 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 1? May 04 $263 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 15? Apr 18 $389 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on March 31? Mar 30 $362 $0 +0%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 09 $509 −$127 -25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 08 $507 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 1? Mar 07 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 28? Feb 27 $419 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 27? Feb 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on February 27? Feb 25 $505 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 23? Feb 24 $1,061 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 23? Feb 24 $7,735 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 21? Feb 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 21? Feb 22 $2,286 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 21? Feb 22 $2,434 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 21? Feb 22 $4,055 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 19? Feb 20 $3,599 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 19? Feb 20 $5,178 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on February 15? Feb 17 $402 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 15? Feb 17 $407 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 15? Feb 17 $1,443 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 15? Feb 17 $6,515 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 13? Feb 14 $1,303 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 13? Feb 14 $1,819 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 13? Feb 14 $2,644 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 13? Feb 14 $2,992 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 11? Feb 12 $1,759 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? Feb 12 $5,815 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 12 Feb 12 $1,175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 9? Feb 11 $1,174 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 8? Feb 09 $5,852 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 8? Feb 08 $1,714 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on February 7? Feb 08 $7,558 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on February 6? Feb 07 $1,173 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on February 5? Feb 06 $2,700 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on February 5? Feb 06 $4,850 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on February 4? Feb 05 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on February 4? Feb 05 $622 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on February 3? Feb 04 $3,656 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on February 3? Feb 04 $3,887 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on February 3? Feb 02 $1,171 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on February 3? Feb 02 $7,535 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $514 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $9 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1,698 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $709 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2,211 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $26 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,693 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $694 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $584 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $212 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $192 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $703 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $690 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39,213 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38,781 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 97¢ $40 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 97¢ $53 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $2,370 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $4,583 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $42 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $1 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $7 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $0 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $4,567 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $2,014 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.02 · official $541.02 (match) · 226 history records