Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdc45…336d other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$76 (+2%) realized +$59 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$2,679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$24
economics 1% +$71
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +64.8% +49.1% 80% 80% +97.8%
≤30d 5 +64.8% +49.1% 80% 80% +97.8%
≤90d 6 +54.5% +39.8% 83% 67% +90.4%
all 6 +54.5% +39.8% 83% 67% +90.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.8% 67% +90.4%
10% +26.4% 50% +72.1%
15% +14.2% 50% +55.5%
20% +3.0% 17% +40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×16.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×81.07 per $1 lost it wins $81.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2,679
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)6 / 21
History coverage76d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $1,031 $1,048 +$17 (+2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1,003 $1,011 +$8 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat Jun 24 $30 +$71 +236%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 15 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $986 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 55¢ $989 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $38 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,419 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $509 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $599 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $43 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 20h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 21h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,679.46 · official $2,679.46 (match) · 39 history records