Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc45…14bc sports 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$82 (-2%) realized −$161 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%82W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$45
other 27% +$217
crypto 17% −$185
politics 3% −$99
weather 2% +$27
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 38% -6.5%
≤30d 13 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 38% -6.5%
≤90d 135 -13.2% -21.4% 42% 42% -16.3%
all 183 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 45% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 45% -11.8%
10% -24.2% 45% -20.3%
15% -31.6% 44% -28.0%
20% -38.3% 41% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$778
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses82 / 101
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions12
Markets (closed)183 / 195
History coverage101d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $100 $155 +$55 (+55%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $98 $102 +$4 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+15%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 56¢ 56¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $39 $56 +$17 (+44%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 54¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 52¢ 41¢ $59 $46 −$13 (-22%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$74 +92%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $37 +$50 +134%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $61 +$64 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $121 +$92 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $95 −$93 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 03 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 03 $20 −$19 -94%
Credit One Charleston Open: Paula Badosa vs Anna Kalinskaya Apr 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac Apr 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Vit Kopriva vs Alexandre Muller Apr 03 $25 +$26 +105%
Credit One Charleston Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Polina Kudermetova Apr 02 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Vit Kopriva vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Anyang vs. LG Sakers Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Anna Bondar vs Magdalena Frech Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Miyazaki: Carl Overbeck vs Ognjen Milic Apr 01 $25 +$14 +56%
Bucharest Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Filip Jianu Apr 01 $25 +$14 +57%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Kamil Majchrzak Apr 01 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $30 +$27 +89%
ELH: Plzen vs. Sparta Prague Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Sloane Stephens vs Renata Zarazua Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Zhizhen Zh Mar 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Viktoriya Tomova vs Jennifer Brady Mar 31 $25 +$12 +46%
Credit One Charleston Open: Alycia Parks vs Mary Stoiana Mar 31 $30 +$25 +84%
Credit One Charleston Open: Anastasia Zakharova vs Dayana Yastremska Mar 30 $25 +$16 +63%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 30 $25 +$24 +96%
Mobis Phoebus vs. Wonju DB Promy Mar 30 $25 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Mar 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Dubrovnik: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Mayar Sherif Mar 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5) Mar 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Mar 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Lehecka vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5 Mar 30 $25 +$15 +61%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Jack Pinnington Jone Mar 30 $25 +$16 +64%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 30 $25 +$19 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $51 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 56¢ $61 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $51 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ $51 1h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $26 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $37 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $81 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $61 9h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $26 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $212 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $121 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $26 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $51 13h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $61 13h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $95 35h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $20 35h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $26 35h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $26 35h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $99 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 5d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 37¢ $61 5d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 52¢ $60 5d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $59 5d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 5d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 38¢ $33 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $20 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $25 75d
Credit One Charleston Open: Paula Badosa vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Paula Badosa 59¢ $30 75d
Grand Prix Hassan II: Vit Kopriva vs Alexandre Muller BUY Alexandre Muller 48¢ $25 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $777.62 · official $777.63 (match) · 470 history records